2025 College Football Returning Production Analysis
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AI summaryDisplay highlights
- Returning production percentages crucial for 2025 team predictions
- Transfers influence roster dynamics and team outcomes
- Author's formula adapts to changing trends for accurate analysis
- Data spans all 136 FBS teams, indicating potential performance shifts
360 summary
- In the SP+ formula, incoming players' production from their previous teams is integrated into the numerator and denominator for their new teams, influencing returning production percentages.
- Transfers from lower divisions receive only half-credit due to inconsistent translation to the FBS level, impacting how their contributions are factored into the formula.
- The recruiting aspect considers incoming transfers' recruiting rankings to adjust a team's overall recruiting averages, with a focus on the initial impact of transfers before transitioning to younger recruits in subsequent seasons.
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- Incorporating incoming player's production from previous teams into the current team's returning production calculations
- Adjusting the impact of transfers based on their recruiting rankings within a team's overall recruiting averages
- Assigning specific weightings for different factors like returning OL snaps and WR/TE receiving yards in determining offensive percentages
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- Group of 5 teams are facing challenges due to losing stars to higher-level schools and conferences, leading to a drag on their returning production percentages.
- Compared to power conference teams with an average of 58.6% returning production, Group of 5 teams are struggling with a ghastly average of 49.0%.
- The disparities in returning production percentages among conferences highlight the mounting challenges for Group of 5 programs, signaling potential difficulties in competing with higher-tier teams.
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- Teams returning less than 40% of production in 2025 are facing regression, with 75% of them on average experiencing a decline in SP+ and 50% falling by at least 10 points.
- Despite varying returning production percentages, there are instances where high or low returns did not directly correlate with team performance, as seen with BYU underachieving despite returning 87% of production in 2022 and Louisiana-Monroe improving with only 33% returning in 2024.
- Teams with extremely low returning production percentages, such as those under 30%, like Jacksonville State, Nevada, New Mexico, Northern Illinois, and Washington State, may face challenges and may not have a favorable 2025 season.
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- Quarterback Sam Leavitt leads a significant group of returning players for the Sun Devils' offense, indicating a strong foundation for offensive success.
- Texas A&M, ranked 13th in SP+ in 2024, has shown improvement and now ranks sixth in returning production for 2025, suggesting a promising trajectory for the team.
- The Aggies have key players returning, such as running backs Amari Daniels and Le'Veon Moss, who collectively contributed 1,627 yards from scrimmage, providing a solid offensive core for the upcoming season.
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- Teams returning less than 40% of production in 2025 face potential regression, with 75% of them on average experiencing a decline and 50% falling by at least 10 points in SP+.
- Despite varying returning production percentages, there are instances where high or low percentages did not directly correlate with team performance, as seen with BYU underachieving despite returning 87% of production in 2022 and Louisiana-Monroe improving with only 33% returning in 2024.
- Continuity in team composition has decreased in 2025, particularly noticeable in positions like running back, wide receiver/tight end, and defensive line, which have seen declining national averages for returning snaps.
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- Oklahoma's defense in 2025 is expected to be outstanding, with 11 returning players with significant playing time and key additions from other teams.
- Auburn's quarterback situation for the upcoming season involves a competition between two transfers, Ashton Daniels and Jackson Arnold, to lead a talented receiving corps.
- Both teams face challenges despite their potential improvements, with Oklahoma dealing with a brutal schedule and Auburn needing to address red zone miscues and turnovers from the previous season.
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- Despite losing four of last year's top six targets, Florida's quarterback will have the support of running back Jadan Baugh and four returning offensive line starters.
- The defense, which improved significantly in 2024, retains a solid core of 12 players with 200-plus snaps, providing stability and experience.
- Coach Billy Napier's patient approach to building the team amidst high expectations at Florida indicates a strategic and steady progression towards success.
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- Arizona State's young team has a chance to avoid close games altogether by being good enough to dominate opponents, with key players returning like quarterback Sam Leavitt, receiver Jordyn Tyson, and four offensive line starters.
- Coach Kenny Dillingham's strategic use of the portal brought in players with significant FBS experience, totaling 61 starts last season, adding depth and talent to the roster.
- The Sun Devils' defense looks promising with 14 out of 17 defenders who played over 200 snaps returning, indicating continuity and potential for defensive strength in the upcoming season.
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- Despite losing Jeanty, Boise State's returning production remains strong with key players like quarterback Maddux Madsen, primary pass catchers, offensive linemen, linebackers, and most of the secondary returning.
- The defensive line is undergoing a rebuild due to the departure of four top players, but the team is bolstered by the addition of four transfers, aiming to maintain a competitive edge.
- If new talents like Fresno State transfer Malik Sherrod and young players Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley can step up in the run game, Boise State is poised to be a top contender for the G5's playoff spot once again.
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- Oklahoma's defense in 2025 is expected to be outstanding, with 11 returning players who have logged over 200 snaps, including talents from Florida State and Oklahoma State.
- The addition of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and quarterback John Mateer from Washington State provides a boost to Oklahoma's offense, potentially leading to solid overall improvement.
- If Mateer and the seven new receiving corps transfers can establish good chemistry, especially with a more experienced offensive line, the Sooners have the potential to make significant strides despite facing a tough schedule.
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- Ole Miss narrowly missed out on a playoff bid despite finishing second in SP+ in 2024, showcasing their potential for major success.
- Oregon, ranked third in SP+ in 2024, faces the challenge of replacing key players across both offense and defense, requiring time to establish firm footing in 2025.
- Both teams have added impactful transfers to their rosters, aiming to mitigate the loss of significant contributors and maintain competitiveness in the upcoming season.
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- Miami's offensive challenges: Miami, despite a strong offense in 2024, faces significant changes with the departure of key players like quarterback Cam Ward and top receivers, leading to concerns about offensive production in 2025.
- SMU's defensive overhaul: SMU's defensive front six experienced a complete turnover with all starters and backups at tackle leaving, raising worries about the team's defensive strength and ability to fill the gaps left by last year's players.
- Impact of transfers on SMU: While SMU has utilized the transfer portal effectively in the past, the departure of many key contributors from the previous season poses a challenge in maintaining the team's performance level in 2025.
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- Georgia's roster turnover includes replacing key offensive and defensive players, such as starting quarterback Carson Beck and top targets, which may impact their performance in the upcoming season.
- Texas, despite welcoming highly touted quarterback Arch Manning and bolstering their defensive line with transfers, faces the challenge of replacing key players like quarterback Quinn Ewers and top linemen, potentially leading to fluctuations in their performance.
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- Miami, despite a strong offensive performance in 2024, faces challenges in replacing key offensive players such as quarterback Cam Ward, leading rusher Damien Martinez, and top receivers, impacting their offensive returning production for 2025.
- SMU, after a promising 2024 season, is dealing with significant losses on both offense and defense, with quarterback Kevin Jennings losing key offensive weapons and a defensive front six that saw all starters and backups at tackle depart, affecting their returning production for the upcoming season.
- South Carolina, another top team in SP+ rankings, is highlighted as having concerns due to their low returning production, indicating potential challenges in maintaining their performance level from the previous season.
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